I will be moderating a panel on mobile technology at India IT 2020 (Jan 28, Grand Hyatt, Mumbai). On the panel with me will be Veer Bothra (Ravience, ex-NetCore), Krishna Durbha (Reliance Communications), Swami Krishnan (IFIM, ex-Sasken). Here are some topics I propose to bring up in our 90 minutes: what we can expect from next-generation mobile phones how 3G will make a difference to data services can mobile be the next big marketing and advertising medium the growing importance of value-added services to the ARPU mix what will it take to make the mobile Internet a mass phenomenon in India what will the mobile operator of tomorrow look like what will be the impact of emerging technologies like GPS and LBS what will it take to create the next global leader in the mobile space from India What else would you like to see discussed? What other questions would you like to ask the panelists (or me)? Thanks in advance for your inputs!

Nothing could have prepared anyone in corporate India for the Satyam news story which broke on Wednesday morning. It is India’s Enron and Madoff combined. As a good friend put it, Satyam will now have a very different meaning for a generation of Indians. Even as the wreckage is sifted through, it is critical to ensure Satyam as an organisation keeps running — there is too much at stake here for its employees and customers. Some government involvement may be needed to ensure a quick resolution since no buyer will be willing to take any risk on its books. Uncertainty will not help anyone. At Rs 40, the stock has gone as low as it can probably go. There are many questions about all that has happened. “Why” is the first.  And presumably, over time, we will get some of the answers. But an incident like this is a major wake-up call for the lax standards of corporate governance in India. Talk privately to some investors, and they will talk about “promoter issues.” This is not the only big blow-up that India Inc. is likely to see in times to come. Another friend put it all in context: we seem to be following the US in all the wrong things. First, we had our 9/11 with 26/11. Now, we had our Enron. Wonder what’s next. Hope the next elections don’t throw up an Indian Bush.

Ghajini: Saw it over the weekend. Very well-made movie. Despite the nice songs and the romance, the only thing that stays with you after the movie is the raw violence. Aamir Khan is exceptional. Overall, a must-watch (once). Outliers: This is a new book by Malcolm Gladwell (author of “The Tipping Point” and “Blink”). The book is about “the story of success.” And as is Gladwell’s style, there are plenty of fascinating stories in it. A good quick read, it leaves you with enough to think about. On a separate note, a movie I watched on TV on one of those lonely nights (since Bhavana and Abhishek were away in Surat) was James Bond’s “Casino Royale.” The poker contest in the movie was especially engrossing. Have recommended that the next cards party I participate in Pune with my cousins be around the variation of poker showcased in the movie, Texas Hold ‘em.

The time around Christmas and New Year is when one ends up meeting a number of friends who are settled abroad. This year was no different. And there were three topics which were common in most discussions: Satyam, Pakistan and the Slowdown. Here is a summary of what I would say on each of them: Satyam: There had to have been some deeper reason for Raju to make the decision he did. I have met him twice - in 1999 (a short meeting when Sify, a separate Internet company founded by Satyam, bought my company) and 2000 (when I was invited to participate in a 3-day Executive Leadership session led by Harvard faculty at the Hyderabad campus).  I came away deeply impressed with Raju on both occasions - especially, his openness, his intellect, his willingness to think long and make bold bets (Sify was one such venture). Perhaps, there was a cash crunch which necessitated a bailout at the Maytas companies. It will probably help Satyam and Raju if he stated (blogged?!) the real reasons - and then let everyone decide whether he did right or wrong. Pakistan: War is not the solution. The only effective response India can probably give is to create an undercover team that goes after the perpetrators wherever they are. This is something we have to learn from Israel and also the covert CIA operations globally. (Maybe I have been reading too many fictionalised accounts of these!) We can beg and plead of the US and Pakistan for help but nothing is going to happen. Slowdown: Yes, there is one. And it will stay for some time. But businesses like ours are too small and insignificant to really be impacted by it. And while other bigger players are distracted, it is a great opportunity to build innovative products and solutions. As a small company, one can only cut costs up to a point. At the end, the only thing that matters is revenue growth. And that will always happen if one has the right solutions and the right pitch to potential customers.

After all the bungling that happened in 2008 with the allocation of spectrum to a bunch of new operators for a pittance, I am amazed that India can still keep messing up its telecom policy. The rules of the 3G auction keep getting changed — perhaps depending on who has met whom the previous day. And now, it has been decided to delay it by two weeks. Here is my assessment of the reason. I think the government has realised that after all their changes in the rules and the liquidity crunch which has hit businesses (including telecom operators) worldwide, their hopes of raising $10 billion has all but vanished. I think what the government has realised that all its flip-flops on the rules has pretty much ensured that foreign bidders (for whom the conditions were stiffer, since they didn’t have a 2G operation) will all but stay awa. So, with just the domestic incumbent operators left in the fray, the ‘auction’ wouldn’t really end up that way. As a result, the bidding would probably have ended up a little higher than the reserve price of about Rs 2,000 crore for a national licence. So, what does the government do? Double the reserve price! With 5 licences to give out (including one to BSNL/MTNL), at least this way it ensures that it can garner a minimum of Rs 20,000+ crore. My feeling on what will happen is that the 3G auction will probably not happen in Jan. And if its gets delayed further, we start moving into pre-election territory when the code of conduct will start coming into effect, and it could end up being delay to the end of the year after the new government takes over in May-June. I don’t think theincumbent operators will be too unhappy with this — no one is really clamouring for 3G. The most valuable thing that 3G offers is more spectrum — which will probably end up being used for vopice rather than data services. I hope this does not happen. India needs wireline and wireless broadband services of every kind if we are to create a future in data services — our digital infrastructure has been messed around since time immemorial.

I wrote this post in July 2003. I started thus: “It is a fascinating time to be a part of the world of technology. There are many new areas opening up. There are new markets waiting to be discovered. There are new technologies emerging out of the woodwork. Every entrepreneur tries to build a company in his own image, doing what he is good at.” It was true then, and it is as true now. Some of the ideas I discussed: Focus on non-consumption, not competition. A company is defined by its competition. I don’t like competition because aggressive marketing and spending a lot of money is not something which I enjoy. I like to look for new, invisible markets and get there first. This gives me time to get things right because I know I am going to make some mistakes - so might as well make them while no one else is watching! More importantly, the non-consumption market is typically much larger than the consuming market. Envision tomorrow. This is perhaps one of the hardest things to do. It is also the most important. Today is visible all around us. But how will all that is happening today make a difference a few years from now? Because that is the world which we are building for. We need to think about where all the developments of today are leading. It does not matter whether one is right or wrong at this stage - if we succeed in creating the future, we will be proven right! Otherwise, it does not matter. We are envisioning the world of tomorrow, and also through our actions seeking to create that future. Having a sense of the endgame helps decide what intermediate steps need to be taken. It also helps us orchestrate the others into exactly the positions that we want them. Begin. As has been said, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. It is amazing how many ideas never see the light of day. My regret would be not that I tried and failed, but that I did not try. Failure is the worst thing that can happen - and it is temporary. But not making the attempt - one has to live a life with that thought. If one makes the decision to close one door, God opens others. But it is we humans who have to take the first step. This is in some ways a very difficult thing to do. Status quo is easy. Change and uncertainty is not.

This weekend’s links: Bits of Destruction: by Fred Wilson. “Bits of information flowing over a wire (or through the air) are just more efficient than physical infrastructure…This downturn will be marked in history as the time where many of the business models built in the industrial era finally collapsed as a result of being undermined by the information age. Its creative destruction at work.” Top Technology Breakthroughs of 2008: from Wired The Real-Time Enterprise: by Tim O’Reilly. “What do Google, WalMart, and MyBarackObama.com have in common, besides their extraordinary success? They are organizations that are infused with IT in such a way that it leads to a qualitative change in their entire business.” 10 Tech Predictions for 2009: by Louis Gray Say Good-bye to Mediocrity: by Om Malik

To round off the Best of 2008 series, here are a few blog posts about me: 40 to 41: Happy Birthday, Rajesh! Letter to a 3-Year-Old: Happy Birthday, Abhishek! Likes: Trains, Ice-creams, Jigsaw Puzzles Life: Gadgets, and A Day Memories: 1988 and 7 Lake St On Blogging Daily and Writing: something I look forward to continuing through 2009

I made a number of presentations in 2008. Here are some of them: Mobile World Congress in Barcelona  Red Hat Open-Source Apac Partner Meet in Phuket Nanyang Business School in Singapore Three on Mobile Marketing: IAMAI MVAS Conference, afaqs Mobile Conversations, Indian Magazine Congress Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco

The Mumbai Terror attacks and the inadequacy (and at times, sheer stupidity) of the politicians we have elected to power contrasts dramatically with the team that is now taking charge of America under Obama. Here are some of my writings on this theme: Reinventing Indian Politics: how mobiles will create an opportunity for an Indian Obama in the years to come Who will be India’s Obama? India needs Ratan Tata as Prime Minister for 5 Years: this post got over 65 comments, the most any post has ever received