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The Financial Crisis at the Economics Convention
4/1/2009 external link
I'm at the annual economics conference in San Francisco. I've been going to these things, on and off, since I was a grad student in the early 1980s. Because of the combination of the financial crisis and the new president,...
Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme? Response to Comments
30/12/2008 external link
I've read through all the comments on my previous post, and I wanted to see if I could respond to some of them. In particular, a lot of people objected to me calling Social Security a Ponzi scheme. Other people...
Will the Economic Crisis hit Asia Harder than the U.S.?
28/12/2008 external link
The latest news out of Asia is not good. On December 26 the Japanese government announced that factory output fell by more than 8% in November, the biggest drop in 55 years. Toyota—now the world’s largest automaker-- expects to report...
Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme?
28/12/2008 external link
(This is the first in a series on technology and the crisis) In the aftermath of the Madoff implosion, quite a few people have pointed out the parallels between a Ponzi scheme and Social Security. Arnold Kling, whom I respect,...
Why Autos are Important
27/12/2008 external link
The failures in the domestic auto industry really are a big cause of our trade problems. Take a look at this graph, which shows the cumulative merchandise trade deficit of the U.S. since 2000. Astoundingly, the auto trade deficit is...
Are the Yankees Evil? Or just unseemly?
26/12/2008 external link
I've taken a ten-day break from posting, but now I'm refreshed and ready to go. Let's warm up with something light and easy: The Yankees. For full transparency, I was a New York Mets fan growing up, so I never...
Madoff and the SEC
17/12/2008 external link
Here is a portion of a statement issued today by Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox: Since Commissioners were first informed of the Madoff investigation last week, the Commission has met multiple times on an emergency basis to seek...
Deflation and Economic Recovery
16/12/2008 external link
I just did a story arguing that deflation might help economic recovery. Here's a piece: Is price deflation a sign of an accelerating economic downturn? History is not encouraging. Periods with falling prices—consider Japan in the 1990s and the Great...
Madoff and the Fundamental Fallacy of the Global Economy
15/12/2008 external link
I've written a new piece here on Madoff and the "fundamental fallacy of the global economy." Here's the beginning of it: For years, Bernie Madoff, all-around nice guy, pulled billions of dollars of foreign and domestic money into his investment...
"Houston, We Have Our Scapegoats"
13/12/2008 external link
So far this financial crisis has been marked by an unsatisfying search for a scapegoat or villain. So far Congress and the press have tried to pin the "villain" label on Wall Street investment banks, credit-ratings agencies, mortgage brokers, and...
How Many U.S. Jobs Does the Apple iPod Create?
12/12/2008 external link
The answer: 13,920, including engineering and retail. But there are 27,250 iPod-related jobs created outside the U.S. That's according to a terrific new study called "Innovation and Job Creation in a Global Economy:The Case of Apple's iPod". The authors--Greg Linden,...
Intangible Sector Job Growth
10/12/2008 external link
I just did a piece on job growth in the intangible sector. You can find it here....
Was the Trade Boom partly driven by cheap credit?
8/12/2008 external link
I was just reading a report by Capital Economics on a decline in Chinese exports. They wrote ....strains have been growing in the system of trade finance that underpins global trade. Industry sources report that 70% of China’s exports last...
The jobs report
8/12/2008 external link
Sorry for not posting on the job reports on Friday. I did a video and an BW.com story, and then had to pause to let it all sink in. Here's the story, with the video embedded in....
Why is real GDP growing in a recession?
2/12/2008 external link
As I noted yesterday, we have now been in recession for a year, but reported real GDP has actually risen. How can that be? I've looked a bit deeper into this. One of the big problems, I think, is the...